How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Santa Barbara Housing Market?

With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, many homeowners in Santa Barbara may be wondering: What effect will the election have on the housing market? It’s a common concern for both buyers and sellers, as elections can often stir uncertainty in financial markets. However, if you're planning to sell your home in Santa Barbara, there’s good news — history shows that Presidential elections tend to have minimal, temporary effects on the housing market.

In this blog, we’ll dive into how previous elections have impacted home sales, prices, and mortgage rates, so you can move forward with confidence, no matter what happens this election season.

1. Home Sales Tend to Slow Slightly During Election Time

One common trend during election years is a temporary slowdown in home sales. Typically, in the months leading up to an election, there’s a slight dip as some buyers and sellers adopt a “wait and see” approach. However, data shows that this slowdown is usually brief. In most cases, home sales rebound strongly in the months following the election.

In fact, after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the following year. This means that while you might see a temporary lull, there’s no long-term impact on the market. So if you're planning to sell your home in Santa Barbara, there’s no need to hit the pause button — the market is likely to remain strong, even through election season.

2. Home Prices Remain Stable or Increase

Another concern during an election year is whether home prices will drop. Fortunately, history tells us that Presidential elections don’t typically cause home prices to fall. In fact, according to a housing analyst, “An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

In 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices actually increased the year following the election. The only exception was the 2008-2009 financial crisis, which had much deeper roots than just the election itself. Today, the market is much more resilient, and while national prices might moderate slightly, Santa Barbara’s desirable location and consistent demand make it unlikely for local prices to decrease.

3. Mortgage Rates May Fall

If you’re considering selling your home, one of the factors that can affect buyer interest is mortgage rates. Historically, mortgage rates have tended to decline in the months leading up to Presidential elections. In 8 of the last 11 election years, rates decreased from July through November, giving buyers more purchasing power.

Experts are predicting a similar trend this year. Mortgage rates have already eased slightly, and many are forecasting further reductions as we move toward the end of the year. This is great news for sellers, as lower rates can encourage more buyers to enter the market, increasing competition for homes like yours.

4. What This Means for Sellers in Santa Barbara

While Presidential elections can bring some temporary uncertainty, the overall impact on the housing market tends to be small. Buyers and sellers may hesitate briefly, but most people continue with their plans, and the market often remains resilient.

For homeowners in Santa Barbara, the local market benefits from high demand, beautiful scenery, and a strong economy. These factors make Santa Barbara’s housing market more insulated from national trends. So, while the election might dominate headlines, the fundamentals of real estate remain the same: supply, demand, and local market conditions play the biggest role in determining the value and saleability of your home.

5. Why Now is Still a Great Time to Sell

Even with the election looming, the Santa Barbara housing market remains a seller's market. With limited inventory and plenty of buyer interest, homes are continuing to sell quickly and at top dollar. If you’ve been thinking about selling your home, now could be the perfect time to make your move.

The uncertainty of an election year can actually work in your favor as a seller. Many buyers are eager to take advantage of favorable mortgage rates before they change, which means you could attract motivated buyers who are ready to close.

6. Need Help Navigating the Market? Let's Connect!

Selling a home during an election year doesn’t have to be overwhelming. With the right strategy and guidance, you can make the most of the current market conditions. As an expert in Santa Barbara real estate, I’m here to help you navigate these unique times and get the best possible outcome for your home sale.